VIDEO DESCRIPTION:

Play, download and edit the free video Simulating Hurricane Chapala.

Size of the model: 3KM resolution over 1100×1000×34 regular grid with 138 time steps.

The visualization shows the eye of the cyclone “chapala” which formed south of the arabian peninsula in Oct-Nov 2015 (Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds). This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Cyclone Gonu in 2007.

Over the Arabian Sea, perfect cyclones (well organized and matured storms) are unusual in post-monsoon periods. Chapala formed over the Arabian Sea and moved into Yemen, affecting as many as 1.1 million people, and displacing more than 36,000. The track of this cyclone is also very interesting as it moved into the Gulf of Aden, pushing waters into the Red Sea through the narrow straits of Bab-el-Mandeb. This might have significant impact on the marine-eco system over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which requires further investigation. Modeling and analyzing the evolution and intensity of Chapala is an important step towards studying its predictability and its impact.

The results of the WRF forecasting model show that the movement of Chapala is well reproduced up to 72 hours, after which track errors become significant. The model output results in several hundred gigabytes of data, we analyze and visualize these data using state of the art computational and visualization software for representing different characteristics of Chapala and to verify the accuracy of the model.

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